Yields Hit 2007 Levels, Crypto Hits the "Check, Please" Button 📉

Bitcoin slipped to $83,344 in Asian morning hours Thursday, down more than 2% over 24 hours after briefly touching nearly $87,300, as a jump in U.S. Treasury yields to their highest level since 2007 dragged crypto and equities lower together. Dogecoin led losses among major tokens, falling 7% to just above 9 cents, while Zcash, XRP and Hyperliquid each declined 5% to 6% and ether, SOL and BNB fell 2% to 3%. TRX held flat. Litecoin outperformed.

The move followed a 15 basis point jump in the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield to 5.11% on Wednesday, according to Treasury data, after S&P Global's flash U.S. business survey showed output growing at its fastest pace in more than five years, with the composite index at 58.4, its highest since July 2021. Brent crude climbed more than 4% to nearly $104 a barrel, ending a six-session slide, before the Treasury's $70 billion sale of five-year notes drew weak demand and cleared at 5.033%, the highest auction yield since 2006 and about 3 basis points above where the notes had traded just prior.

Higher yields raise the bar for holding assets that pay nothing, including bitcoin, and make it more expensive to maintain leveraged positions. Bitcoin's steepest drop Wednesday came shortly after the business survey was released, and the cryptocurrency now sits below $85,000, the strike where Ledn co-founder Mauricio Di Bartolomeo flagged a large block of call options ahead of Friday's roughly $14 billion options expiry on Deribit.

Cross-asset flows pointed in the same direction. The dollar index added 0.13% to 101.24, its highest level since July, while gold fell 0.71% to $4,257, silver dropped 1.18% and U.S. equity futures weakened, with S&P 500 futures down 0.61% and Nasdaq 100 futures down more than 1%. Brent crude's move was led higher, climbing more than 4% to nearly $104 a barrel and ending a six-session slide.

Derivatives data showed short positioning building but with signs of position closing rather than fresh conviction. Taker flow stayed bearish for a second day, with shorts making up over 52% of the 24-hour taker volume, which rose 10% to $250 billion even as open interest fell nearly 6% to $149 billion. Bitcoin futures open interest dropped 6% against a 3% price decline over 24 hours, a pace that suggests real contracts are being closed, consistent with long unwinding. On Binance, the whale long/short account ratio sat above 1 at 1.30 while the whale position ratio held under 2 for a second straight day, a divergence that left large accounts largely sitting out the broader selling.