Bernstein ups its prediction-market bet by 10x—and the kicker is, they're giving it five more years

Bernstein has raised its long-term forecast for prediction markets to $10 trillion in annual trading volume by 2035, roughly 24 times the $410 billion the firm expects the industry to handle this year and 10 times its original 2030 projection. In a Tuesday client note, analysts led by Gautam Chhugani said volumes are expected to compound at roughly 70% a year through 2035. The firm cited industry-wide trading that grew from about $50 billion in 2025 to roughly $300 billion in the first eight months of 2026, with Kalshi now controlling about 60% of industry volume, up from 35% a year ago.

The composition of that volume is forecast to shift sharply. Sports, which made up 61% of trading volume in 2025, are projected to fall to 38% by 2035, while contracts tied to crypto, stocks and commodities, grouped together by Bernstein as "financial assets," are set to grow from 12% to 49% of the market, making them the largest category for the first time. "We expect new products such as KPI markets, which allow users to trade a single corporate metric, such as production, deliveries, or subscriber growth, rather than the stock price itself," the analysts wrote, alongside a note that "perp futures are expanding from crypto to commodities and single stock perps."

The shift is already visible on Kalshi. Crypto's share of the platform's volume jumped from under 5% in January to about 20% in August, and commodity trading grew from less than $2 million in all of 2025 to roughly $590 million so far in 2026, including $410 million in August alone.

Back in April, Bernstein had projected prediction markets would reach $1 trillion by 2030, up from $51 billion in 2025, arguing then that growth would come less from bigger sports bets and more from institutions moving in. "We expect an institutional market to develop around economics, business, and political contracts, as investors seek more direct and discrete exposure to events," the firm wrote at the time. It also pointed to "increasing regulatory clarity at the federal level...expanding the addressable market, while blockchain-based tokenization and integration with crypto markets is enabling global liquidity, long-tail event creation and participation from institutions." That earlier $1 trillion-by-2030 figure has now been replaced by a $10 trillion-by-2035 target, a tenfold increase in size and a five-year extension of the timeline.