Same Trade, 57 Times Out of 100: Kalshi's Perp "Liquidity" Looks Suspiciously Rehearsed 🎭

A small set of repeating trade sizes accounted for more than half of the value traded on Kalshi's bitcoin and ether perpetual-futures markets, according to a CoinDesk analysis of the exchange's public trade records. Trades valued within $2 of $5,499 made up $7.7 million, or 57%, of the $13.5 million in ether transactions CoinDesk analyzed between Sept. 17 and Sept. 20. On the bitcoin market, fixed-dollar trades of roughly $2,500 and $5,000 accounted for 54% of the $8.5 million sampled over the same period.

The pattern extended beyond that four-day window. In 43 of 46 one-hour samples examined between June 19 and Sept. 20, ether trades repeatedly clustered around specific dollar targets, with the prevailing trade size representing about 45% of value across those samples and more than half of value on numerous occasions. Recurring bitcoin trade sizes appeared on similar dates, suggesting automated execution rather than discretionary activity.

Volume is a key indicator traders use to gauge how active and liquid a market is, and whether orders can be executed without significantly moving price. Elevated reported volume can also signal wider adoption of a venue. When a large share of that activity stems from identical recurring trade sizes, the composition of that volume becomes difficult to interpret without identifying the participants behind it.

Kalshi's public data does not identify traders or establish any wrongdoing. The exchange did not explain who produced the repeated trades or why their target values shifted over time. CoinDesk reported the findings in an article written by Shaurya Malwa and edited by Aoyon Ashraf.