Tenev's Two-Bit Future: Crypto Contracts Dethroning Sports as Robinhood's House Bet 🪙

Robinhood CEO Vlad Tenev told Jim Cramer on CNBC's "Mad Money" that crypto-linked event contracts are already grabbing an outsized share of the brokerage's prediction markets business, predicting that sports wagers will fall into the minority within a few years. "We're already seeing other categories like crypto taking a disproportionate share," Tenev said. "I think within a few years, sports will actually be in the minority, similar to active trading at large." He framed sports as a "wedge" to build liquidity and interest, adding that the industry is "expanding far beyond sports."

The numbers reflect the pivot. Robinhood's event-contract revenue surged more than tenfold year over year to $156 million in the second quarter of 2026, making prediction markets its fastest-growing business line at a time when Robinhood's crypto trading revenue fell. Contracts traded 4.7 billion times in August, roughly 15 times the year-earlier volume, according to figures cited by Decrypt. Prediction markets, also called event contracts, let users trade yes-or-no bets on whether something will actually happen, such as a Federal Reserve rate decision, an election, or a football game, and are regulated as derivatives by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission.

The legal backdrop is central to Tenev's pitch. The Ninth Circuit ruled last month that Nevada can regulate Kalshi's sports contracts, splitting with the Third Circuit, and New Jersey has asked the Supreme Court to settle the dispute. States argue sports contracts are gambling by another name. Crypto contracts do not carry that fight, and shifting volume onto them moves Robinhood's fastest-growing business onto firmer regulatory ground. Tenev illustrated the appeal with a political example, noting that users with a view on the Clarity Act could trade it because Robinhood operates a contract on it. The bill failed cloture last week, and prediction markets called the outcome before the Senate did, with Polymarket odds falling from 35% to 11% ahead of the vote.

The infrastructure has expanded in parallel. Robinhood launched its event-contract hub on Kalshi, the exchange that won a legal battle against the CFTC to offer election-related contracts, then layered on Rothera, its own CFTC-licensed joint venture with trading firm Susquehanna that was tested during this year's World Cup. This month it took minority equity stakes in Crypto.com and prediction-market spinoff OG.com, adding a third partner to clear and settle trades. Competition is intensifying, with CME, Coinbase, and decentralized platforms including Polymarket all racing to sign up event-contract traders.

Tenev tied the strategy to a broader philosophy of retail ownership. "We believe that ownership is essential, not just because if people are owners, they have skin in the game, they can benefit financially, but also a society where more people own high quality financial assets is inherently a more stable society," he told Cramer, the same pitch used to justify Robinhood's 3% match on retirement contributions.