Tenev Bets Crypto Will Dethrone Sports on Prediction Markets' Throne 🏟️➡️🪙

Robinhood CEO Vlad Tenev told CNBC's "Mad Money" that crypto-linked event contracts will overtake sports betting as the dominant slice of his company's prediction markets business within a few years, framing the shift as the next disruption after zero commissions rattled Wall Street. Prediction markets, also called event contracts, let users trade yes-or-no positions on outcomes such as Federal Reserve decisions, elections and football games, and are regulated as derivatives by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission. "We're already seeing other categories like crypto taking a disproportionate share," Tenev said to Jim Cramer. "I think within a few years, sports will actually be in the minority, similar to active trading at large."

The revenue trend backs the pivot. Robinhood reported event-contract revenue of $156 million in the second quarter of 2026, up more than tenfold year over year and making prediction markets its fastest-growing segment, even as crypto trading revenue declined. Contract volume hit 4.7 billion trades in August, roughly 15 times the year-ago level. Tenev called sports "a great tool to bring people in, get liquidity, get interest, establish," but said the industry "is also expanding far beyond sports."

Robinhood built the business on Kalshi, the exchange that prevailed in a legal fight against the CFTC over election contracts, then added Rothera, a CFTC-licensed joint venture with Susquehanna that was tested during this year's World Cup. This month it took minority equity stakes in Crypto.com and its prediction-market spinoff OG.com, adding a third clearing and settlement partner. CME, Coinbase and decentralized platforms including Polymarket are also competing in the same space. Tenev tied the strategy to Robinhood's broader ownership thesis, noting the platform's 3% match on retirement contributions and arguing that event contracts let users convert an opinion directly into a position.