Clarity Act Hits a Speed Bump, Not a Roadblock — Washington Tells Crypto to Hold Its Horses 🐎

The CLARITY Act's market-structure framework failed to advance in the U.S. Senate on September 15 when lawmakers voted 49-50 against invoking cloture, well short of the 60 votes needed to bring the bill to the floor. The procedural defeat came after more than a year of bipartisan negotiations and fell along largely partisan lines, with Republican Sens. Susan Collins (R-ME), Josh Hawley (R-MO), and Jerry Moran (R-KS) joining Democrats in opposition. Sen. Thom Tillis (R-NC) initially voted yes before switching to no, a procedural maneuver that preserved the option of bringing the bill back at a later date. The House of Representatives has since cancelled its sessions and entered recess until November ahead of the November midterm elections, narrowing the bill's path for the remainder of the year.

Industry figures quickly framed the vote as a delay rather than a death blow. House Majority Whip Tom Emmer said, "Very disappointing they did not get this passed yesterday or get the process started but I don't think it spells doom," adding, "It just delays it until after the midterms. You see the CLARITY Act after the midterms and get it done before the end of the year." Shark Tank co-host Kevin O'Leary, speaking Thursday at the Avalanche Summit in New York, said he expects lawmakers to revisit the legislation in the first or second quarter of next year. "The chances of Clarity passing, in my view, were zero, and that's what happened," O'Leary said, pointing to the House Ways and Means Committee's advancement of the Digital Asset Tax Certainty Act as a reason market-structure rules will return. "Once you tax, you've got to have policy," O'Leary said. "We're going to tax staking. You know with certainty that policy's coming in CLARITY, and it has to."

Bitwise Chief Investment Officer Matt Hougan, who in January had warned that a CLARITY failure could stall the 2026 crypto bull run, reversed course in a September 16 client memo, calling the defeat "a speed bump, not a roadblock." Hougan noted that Bitcoin bottomed at $57,950 on July 1 and peaked above $80,000 on September 4, even as Polymarket odds of 2026 passage fell from 39% to 18%. He now points to SEC Chair Atkins and CFTC Chair Selig as the trade, arguing agency rules could prove "more pro-crypto than the CLARITY Act itself." The bill's chief architect, Sen. Cynthia Lummis (R-WY), said, "Senate Democrats proved they were never truly serious about protecting consumers and preserving American leadership. I sat at the table with Senate Democrats working in good faith to get this done while they played games."

Sen. Angela Alsobrooks (D-MD) struck a different tone. "It's not going to die," she told Crypto In America immediately after the vote. "You know why it's not going to die? Because over 70 million Americans are engaging in an industry that is unregulated, and we have a responsibility to regulate." Alsobrooks was joined by six other Democrats involved in the negotiations — Sens. Kirsten Gillibrand (D-NY), Mark Warner (D-VA), Cory Booker (D-NJ), Catherine Cortez Masto (D-NV), Ruben Gallego (D-AZ), and Raphael Warnock (D-GA) — in calling this week's vote "a setback, but not the end." Despite the legislative stall, derivatives traders at Bitfinex said the market had largely priced in the defeat. Head of derivatives Jag Kooner noted, "There was little evidence that traders had positioned themselves for its passage ahead of the vote. With few market participants betting on the bill's approval, there were correspondingly few positions to unwind."

Bitcoin held near $75,000 through the failed vote, with $BTC shrugging off the outcome even as long futures positions saw $571 million liquidated in the 24 hours following the cloture miss. Coinbase, Circle, and Strategy shares fell between 5% and 10% after the vote and continued lower the following day, with Saxo Bank strategist Ruben Dalfovo warning that Coinbase faces the greatest exposure given its direct ties to U.S. market-structure rules. Meanwhile, Standard Chartered's global head of digital assets research Geoff Kendrick projected Arbitrum's $ARB token at $10 by 2030, citing tokenized assets reaching $39 billion and forecasts of $4 trillion by 2028, with September revenue expected at $5 million on the back of Robinhood Chain's July launch. Bitmine separately added 27,180 ETH last week, bringing holdings to 5.95 million ETH worth $15.4 billion, projecting $334 million in annual staking revenue from its treasury. With Congress in recess and the Senate calendar tightening ahead of the November 3 midterms, the CLARITY Act's next chapter will now be written after Election Day.