JPMorgan's Bitcoin vs. Gold Bet: One ETF Hedge at a Time 🪙

JPMorgan analysts led by Nikolaos Panigirtzoglou have said $BTC could outperform gold in the months ahead if ETF hedging activity begins to unwind. In a new note, the bank argued that Bitcoin's current positioning leaves more room to recover than gold's, particularly if sentiment around the so-called debasement trade improves.

According to JPMorgan, the debasement trade had reawakened following the Federal Reserve's late-July meeting, drawing fresh inflows into both Bitcoin and gold ETFs. That momentum has since stalled. The 10-year real yield has climbed, the U.S. Fed lifted rates by 0.25%, and the Senate did not pass the CLARITY Act, all of which have weighed on the broader trade.

Gold ETFs have benefited more from that brief rebound. Year-to-date flows into gold ETFs have now turned positive again, while $BTC ETF inflows have only recovered about 50% of their prior outflows. Demand for Bitcoin ETFs has cooled over the past several days, leaving additional room for a catch-up if market conditions shift.

JPMorgan also pointed to positioning data. Short interest in BlackRock's IBIT remains close to its yearly maximum, while short interest in GLD, the largest gold ETF, sits below its historical average. The bank said this contrast leaves Bitcoin with greater potential upside once hedge-related pressure fades.

The analysts stopped short of setting a price target, framing the call as a function of ETF flows and macro positioning rather than a forecast. The note did not change JPMorgan's published stance on Bitcoin as an asset class.