Goldman Flips the Script: October Hike Now on the Menu 🍽️

Goldman Sachs has reversed its earlier rate call and now expects the Federal Reserve to deliver another 25 basis point interest rate hike in October. The bank's updated forecast follows the Fed's Wednesday decision to raise its benchmark rate by 25 basis points to a 3.75%–4.00% target range, a move that Goldman previously expected to be followed by a pause.

The shift comes after the central bank's updated rate projections showed a strong majority of policymakers anticipating at least one more increase this year. At the post-meeting press conference, Fed Chair Kevin Warsh struck a hawkish tone, stating that inflation remains "too high" and characterizing the latest hike as removing only a "dose of accommodation," an indication that policymakers view current policy as still not restrictive enough.

Market pricing reflects the new uncertainty. As of Thursday, traders were assigning just over a 50% probability to an additional 25 basis point hike in October, according to the CME's FedWatch tool. That places the near-term path of U.S. monetary policy at the center of cross-asset positioning.

In crypto markets, Bitcoin continues to trade near $76,260, up 0.5% over the prior 24 hours. The muted price action comes as traders digest the Fed's hawkish guidance and assess the implications for liquidity-sensitive assets. The October meeting now stands as the next focal point for both traditional and digital asset markets.