Judge hits pause on CFTC's prediction market case, criminal trial looms for soldier 🤵‍♂️

A federal judge has ordered that a civil case initiated by the US Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) be stayed pending the outcome of a criminal proceeding against a US soldier accused of using nonpublic information to profit from a Polymarket event contract on the removal of Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro. In a Monday ruling in the US District Court for the Southern District of New York, District Judge Andrew Carter granted a motion filed by prosecutors in July to stay the CFTC's civil case "pending the outcome of the criminal proceeding."

Both cases target Gannon Ken Van Dyke, a US Army Special Forces Master Sergeant alleged to have made more than $400,000 on Polymarket event contracts tied to Maduro's removal. According to the US Justice Department, Van Dyke was involved in the operation to oust Maduro in January, leading to allegations he used nonpublic information to profit on prediction markets.

The criminal and civil cases, both filed in April, could carry implications for lawmakers and government officials using prediction markets. Van Dyke has already filed a motion to dismiss the criminal indictment on separate legal theories, including that the CFTC's enforcement of event contracts as "swaps" on prediction markets was "ambiguous."

Van Dyke pleaded not guilty to all charges and is potentially facing a criminal trial beginning in late 2026 or early 2027. The parallel proceedings have drawn attention as US regulators and courts continue to test the legal boundaries around event contracts and prediction platforms such as Polymarket and Kalshi, including a recent report that a Trump teleprompter operator made $100,000 betting on Kalshi markets tied to speeches.