CPI, Gemini Earnings, and 6.9B WLFI Tokens: Your Crypto Week Has Trust Issues 📊

Crypto markets head into the week of Aug. 10 watching whether easing U.S. inflation can keep the Federal Reserve's interest-rate policy on hold and ease pressure on the dollar into year-end, with the Consumer Price Index report on Wednesday serving as the first major test. ING strategists Chris Turner and Francesco Pesole said they expect a no-increase outcome to create a more supportive cross-asset backdrop, writing that "If we're right on the Fed, the dollar should be due a benign decline into year-end in what should be a risk-positive climate." A hotter CPI print would push Treasury yields and the dollar back to the center of crypto trading, while geopolitical instability in the Middle East, where conflict threatens vital oil passageways, continues to influence inflation and rate-hike expectations.

The U.S. CPI year-over-year figure for July is estimated at 3.4%, down from the previous 3.5%, with the month-over-month measure estimated at 0.1% versus the prior -0.4%. Other U.S. data on the calendar includes July existing home sales on Aug. 11, estimated at 4.07M against the prior 4.09M; July PPI year-over-year on Aug. 13, with the previous reading at 5.5% and core PPI month-over-month estimated at 0.1% versus -0.3%; initial jobless claims for the period ending Aug. 8, estimated at 198K against 199K; continuing jobless claims for the period ending Aug. 1, with the previous reading at 1,801K; July retail sales month-over-month on Aug. 14, estimated at 0.2% matching the prior; and the preliminary University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment for August on Aug. 14, with the prior at 54.4 and one-year inflation expectations previously at 4.2%. Japan releases preliminary Q2 GDP growth quarter-over-quarter on Aug. 16, estimated at 0.5% matching the prior, and the Royal Bank of Australia announces its interest rate decision on Aug. 11 at 12:30 a.m. ET, with estimates and prior both at 4.35%.

On Aug. 12, AI Financial Corporation said roughly 6.9 billion WLFI tokens covered by its original lock-up arrangements are expected to become fully transferable. The second-quarter Form 13F filing deadline for U.S. institutional investment managers falls on Aug. 14.

Earnings reports scheduled for the week include Trump Media & Technology Group ($DJT) and Bakkt ($BKKT) post-market on Aug. 10, with Bakkt consensus at $0.03, and Bitdeer Technology Solutions ($BTDR) pre-market on Aug. 10 with consensus at -$0.33, while the Winklevoss twins' Gemini and Securitize are also among the crypto-related companies reporting during the week.