Jobs Report Hands BTC a Macro Pass; Death Cross Says "Show Your Work" 📉

The U.S. labor market contracted in July for the first time since the pandemic recovery, with employers cutting 23,000 jobs against economist expectations of a 95,000 gain, according to data referenced in market reports. The unemployment rate edged down to 4.1% as labor force participation declined, while June's payroll gain was revised down to 20,000 from 57,000 and May's figure was nearly halved. Treasury yields fell and the dollar dropped 0.5% following the release, and CME FedWatch showed the probability of a September rate hike slipping to 40% from 55% a day earlier.

Bitcoin ($BTC) traded at $64,938, up 1.06% (+$683) on the session, with a green daily candle closing near its high. The price remains compressed below both its 50-day exponential moving average and its 200-day EMA, where the shorter average sits beneath the longer average in a pattern known as a death cross. BTC peaked near $80,000 in mid-May before sliding to a July low around $58,000 in a sustained spring downtrend, then flattened into a sideways range that has yet to break above either moving average. The Relative Strength Index (RSI), a momentum gauge on a 0–100 scale where readings above 70 indicate overbought conditions and below 30 indicate oversold, registered 54.6, signaling neutral momentum.

A daily close back above the 50-day EMA and the $66,000 resistance level would open a path toward the 200-day EMA near $64,000 and the cloud top around $72,000, according to technical analysis cited in market coverage. A break below $60,000 — described as both a cloud floor and a round-number magnet — would confirm continued bearish structure and target a retest of the July low at $58,000. On Myriad, a prediction market developed by Decrypt's parent company Dastan, traders are pricing in nearly 65% odds that Bitcoin falls back to $55,000 before recovering toward $84,000, with those probabilities showing little movement over the past week.

Nine Democratic senators are urging the Federal Reserve to reconsider any further interest rate increases following the July jobs miss, according to the source report. The combination of a softer labor print and a weaker dollar has historically supported risk assets, including cryptocurrencies, though Bitcoin's chart structure has not yet confirmed a trend reversal. For now, $65,000 stands as the pivotal level: above it, the July range resembles consolidation; below $60,000, it begins to look like continuation of the prior downtrend.