Clarity Act's 2026 Hopes Dim to 27% as Senate Hits Snooze on Crypto Bill 🪙

Prediction market odds that the Clarity Act will be signed into law in 2026 fell to 27% on July 29, the lowest level recorded on Polymarket, as the U.S. Senate confirmed the digital-asset market structure bill will not receive a floor vote before the August 7 recess. The "Clarity Act signed into law in 2026" contract had peaked at 82% in February and has now declined through successive missed targets, including a White House-floated July 4 signing window and a late-July practical deadline. Senate Majority Leader John Thune acknowledged the chamber lacks time to complete the required floor debate, amendment process, and 60-vote cloture threshold before lawmakers leave Washington, forcing the bill into a September session that carries less political momentum.

Competing legislative priorities have displaced crypto from the pre-recess calendar, with the Senate's schedule consumed by a Russia sanctions package and a backlog of executive, intelligence, and judicial nominations. Republicans hold enough seats to bring the bill forward but still require approximately 10 Democratic senators to clear the filibuster, a math problem that Thune previously signaled by indicating he hoped to at least begin consideration before recess rather than secure outright passage. Galaxy Digital, led by Mike Novogratz, separately cut its internal Clarity Act passing odds, contributing to the market repricing.

Senators Ruben Gallego and Thom Tillis are finalizing a bipartisan ethics counteroffer to send to the White House, an effort aimed at addressing concerns that have stalled the bill's progress. The Consumer Technology Association and a coalition of financial industry participants have voiced support for passage. SEC Chair Paul Atkins said on July 28 that the regulator is ready to advance crypto rules on its own if Congress fails to deliver the Clarity Act, a contingency that has not yet altered the legislative timetable but underscores the bill's narrowing window. As of July 29, Polymarket listed the contract at approximately 27%, down from 28% earlier the same day.