Polymarket Says Clarity Act Is 27% Likely to Pass — Senators Reply With Counteroffer in Hand 🏛️

The market price on passage of the Clarity Act slid to 27% on July 29 on prediction platform Polymarket, the lowest level recorded for the bill on the contract "Clarity Act signed into law in 2026." The drop followed the US Senate's decision to set aside the crypto legislation in order to prioritize votes on a Russia sanctions package and federal nominations. Galaxy, the digital asset firm led by Mike Novogratz, separately trimmed its own assessment of the bill's chances, according to a report cited by CoinGape.

Even with the legislative timetable disrupted, negotiations have not stopped. Senators Ruben Gallego and Thom Tillis are finalizing a bipartisan ethics counteroffer to send to the White House. The package is being prepared as a revised response to the administration's earlier ethics proposals attached to the Clarity Act framework, with the aim of clearing a path for floor consideration.

Industry support for the bill remains broad. The Consumer Technology Association and a coalition of major financial firms have publicly backed passage, arguing that a federal market structure definition for digital assets is overdue. SEC Chair Paul Atkins said the regulator is prepared to advance crypto rules on its own track if the Clarity Act is delayed, underscoring the agency's stated readiness to proceed with rulemaking in parallel.

Polymarket traders had previously assigned higher probabilities to the bill, but the latest 27% reading reflects trader reaction to the procedural reshuffle in the Senate and to the uncertainty surrounding the ethics framework. The contract tracks whether the legislation will be signed into law within 2026, and the current level sits well below the levels posted earlier in the year.

The next test for the bill's momentum will be whether the Gallego-Tillis counteroffer secures White House sign-off and whether Senate leadership returns the measure to the active calendar after the Russia sanctions vote and confirmation votes conclude.