Traders Give US-Iran Truce Two Weeks And a Pray: Polymarket Says 53% Chance Peace Holds

Prediction markets are pricing near 50-50 odds that the United States will refrain from striking Iranian territory for a continuous 14-day period, despite Washington's ceasefire announcement. A Polymarket contract tracking that no-strike window slipped from above 60% to roughly 53% on Monday. A separate contract on Myriad, developed by Dastan (parent company of Decrypt), tracks whether a formal senior-level round of U.S.-Iran peace talks begins by July 31, and most money on that market is positioned for talks to slip into August. Myriad's rules exclude technical meetings, phone calls, and messages exchanged through mediators unless they form part of a formally convened senior-level round. The Polymarket contract can remain open into mid-August because the required 14-day no-strike period only needs to begin by July 31.

The U.S. and Iran had held fire for a third consecutive day by Monday, following 13 straight nights of U.S. strikes. President Donald Trump told Axios he was ready to return to "very strong military action" if talks fail. Iran has denied that direct negotiations are taking place, saying mediators were carrying messages. The April ceasefire sent Bitcoin and oil markets sharply higher before analysts characterized the lull as "fragile breathing room," and prediction markets continued to doubt that Strait of Hormuz shipping would normalize as vessels turned back.

Risk assets opened the day under pressure. South Korea's KOSPI index fell more than 8% at the open and triggered a circuit breaker, dragging global sentiment. New Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh, in only his second FOMC meeting, is widely expected to hold rates at 3.50%–3.75%, but CME FedWatch put hike odds near 38% as recently as last weekend, the highest of this cycle. Bitcoin is parked near $63,400–$64,000, well below its June highs around $80,000, with altcoins absorbing the heaviest losses. XRP led decliners as the global macro backdrop registered as the most unfavorable reading of the year for crypto markets.

Separately, Apple reclaimed the title of the world's most valuable company, and Polymarket traders rushed to reprice the odds. The contract on Apple finishing July in first place surged by more than 50% in roughly a day, reaching about 79%, while Nvidia's implied chance fell to around 22%. The market has attracted about $4.7 million in total trading volume. At Tuesday's close, Apple held a market capitalization of approximately $3.18 trillion versus Nvidia's roughly $2.97 trillion. Traders can still bet on whether the crown changes hands again before month-end on Polymarket, where contract prices behave like crowd-generated probabilities.