🍎 Cupertino's Capex Diet Has Apple Beating Nvidia—Polymarket Gives It 79%

Apple has reclaimed the title of the world's most valuable company, and bettors on Polymarket are pricing in a 79% chance the iPhone maker holds the crown through the end of July. Nvidia's implied odds slid to roughly 22% on the prediction market, which has seen about $4.7 million in total trading volume. At Tuesday's close, Apple sat at approximately $4.995 trillion in market capitalization versus Nvidia's $4.768 trillion—a lead of about $227 billion.

The market is now treating Apple's restraint on artificial intelligence infrastructure spending as a strategic plus rather than a liability. Investors have grown uneasy about AI capex after Reuters estimated that five major cloud companies could spend more on long-lived assets than they generate in free cash flow by 2027. Nvidia's stock slipped on reports the chipmaker could provide a roughly $250 billion financial backstop for an OpenAI data-center project, fueling concern that AI firms are increasingly financing their own customers. Apple's June unveiling of a rebuilt Siri with conversational features and personal-context awareness—built partly on outside models and the company's own smaller on-device systems—has reframed what was once dismissed as a lagging AI effort.

Nvidia's underlying business remains intact. The company posted $62.3 billion in data-center revenue for its latest reported quarter, up 75% year over year, underscoring sustained demand for AI infrastructure. Apple is scheduled to report fiscal third-quarter results on July 30 at 5 p.m. Eastern time. Polymarket's contract settles based on the largest market capitalization at the July 31 market close.

Crypto markets are not detached from the macro picture. The Federal Reserve, under new Chair Kevin Warsh in only his second FOMC meeting, is widely expected to hold rates at 3.50%–3.75%, though CME FedWatch showed hike odds near 38% over the weekend, the highest of this cycle. Bitcoin ($BTC) has traded near $63,400–$64,000, well below June highs around $80,000, while altcoins including XRP have taken the brunt of the risk-off move. Selling accelerated after South Korea's KOSPI index fell more than 8% at the open and triggered a circuit breaker, sending a global shockwave before New York traders had finished their coffee, and $BTC slid to $62,684.