Clarity Act shelved, Fed looms, and XRP's trend is so weak it forgot to start 🫠

The U.S. Senate formally shelved the Clarity Act on Monday to prioritize a Russia sanctions bill and federal nominations, removing the legislative vehicle that would have codified XRP's commodity classification into law. The chamber's August recess begins around August 7, leaving a narrow window for passage this year; the next opportunity might not come until 2027. XRP, the cryptocurrency developed by the founders of payments company Ripple, briefly jumped 3.25% to $1.1485 on July 21 after reports that President Donald Trump had agreed to the bill's long-stalled ethics provision, with Polymarket odds on Senate passage ticking to 43%. On Binance, XRP trades at $1.0641 with a roughly $65 billion market cap, a 24-hour low of $1.0450 and a high of $1.0679, down from its mid-2025 peak near $3.40.

The macro backdrop compounds the pressure. New Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh, in only his second FOMC meeting, is widely expected to hold rates at 3.50%–3.75%, but CME FedWatch put hike odds near 38% as recently as last weekend, the highest of this cycle. Bitcoin is parked near $63,400–$64,000, well below its June highs around $80,000, and altcoins are absorbing the brunt of the selloff. Standard Chartered's conditional $8 XRP target, contingent on full Senate passage plus $4 billion to $8 billion in new ETF inflows, stays theoretical absent the Clarity Act.

Technical indicators point to a market without conviction. The Average Directional Index sits at 11.2, one of the weakest readings XRP has posted all summer; anything below 25 signals no confirmed trend, and sub-20 readings are associated with choppy, directionless markets. As Decrypt flagged on July 16, when the reading was 13.3, XRP has been stuck in trendless limbo for most of July, though the directional indicator is beginning to rotate from DI- toward DI+.

The Exponential Moving Averages confirm the broader picture: the 50-day EMA is trading below the 200-day EMA in the formation traders call a death cross, indicating the medium-term trajectory remains pointed lower as XRP continues to log lower highs and lower lows inside a sustained descending channel.