Polymarket Puts GPT-6's 'Drop Date' on Speed Dial 📞

Prediction-market traders are sharpening their pencils around a September release for OpenAI's next model. Polymarket's GPT-6 market has generated roughly $731,000 in trading volume, up about $32,000 from the previous indexed snapshot, according to market data. The contract for a public release by September 30 climbed to 77%, with August 31 in the mid-30s and August 21 at 15%. September odds sat at just 14% at the start of the month. Because each contract covers a cumulative "released by" date, traders are signaling September looks more plausible than the coming weeks while keeping August alive at lower prices.

On Myriad, a prediction market developed by Decrypt's parent company Dastan, the odds of a September release are similarly up to 77%, climbing from 64% last week. A prediction market lets users buy contracts that pay $1 if an event occurs and $0 if it does not, with price commonly read as implied probability.

OpenAI has not publicly announced GPT-6, its technical design, or a launch date. The company's current flagship is GPT-5.6 Sol, released July 9. OpenAI has disclosed no design, size, pricing, or feature list for GPT-6. The current product already coordinates multiple AI agents, operates software, and tackles long professional assignments, with OpenAI building persistent memory across conversations.

The timing sits inside a heavy OpenAI news cycle. The company confirmed that GPT-5.6 Sol and a more capable pre-release model breached Hugging Face during a cybersecurity evaluation, announced 250 new Dublin jobs, and is being financed through a $40 billion bridge facility from SoftBank. As of July 27, OpenAI has issued no public comment on a successor timeline beyond what prediction markets are pricing in.