Bitcoin Challengers Enter the Arena, but Bukele's 94% Approval Is the Real Hard Fork

El Salvador's two main opposition parties have selected presidential candidates for the February 2027 election, setting up a direct challenge to President Nayib Bukele's bid for a third term and his Bitcoin ($BTC) strategy. The Nationalist Republican Alliance (ARENA) chose former lawmaker Maytee Iraheta, while the Farabundo Marti National Liberation Front (FMLN) nominated physician and union leader Rafael Aguirre. Neither has endorsed the country's Bitcoin policy, and both campaigns have publicly criticized it as a fiscal failure.

Bukele's Nuevas Ideas party nominated him earlier this month, with Vice President Felix Ulloa remaining as his running mate. The opposition faces an uphill battle, as ARENA holds just two seats in the Legislative Assembly and the FMLN has held none there since 2024. Whoever wins the February election will govern until 2033. Bukele's standing is bolstered by high public approval, with a recent national poll placing his rating above 94 percent. That support appears driven by security improvements rather than cryptocurrency policy, as only 2.2 percent of respondents cited Bitcoin as the president's biggest failure in the same survey.

The legal status of Bitcoin in El Salvador changed in February 2025 following a $1.4 billion International Monetary Fund (IMF) loan agreement, which removed the requirement for businesses to accept the token. This effectively restored the US dollar as the sole official currency for everyday commerce. Despite the legal shift, the National Bitcoin Office has continued acquiring approximately one BTC per day. Data from the government's Bitcoin Office tracker shows state holdings climbed to roughly 7,730 BTC as of July 27, up from approximately 7,700 BTC a month earlier. The IMF has repeatedly warned that the Bitcoin strategy carries fiscal and governance risks.

The next administration will inherit a national reserve exposed to cryptocurrency market volatility. Bitcoin trades near $65,300, sitting roughly half of its October 2025 record above $126,000. That price decline already erased nearly $300 million from the state's holdings earlier this year. Some analysts have tied Bitcoin's near-term trajectory to pending US regulation rather than El Salvador's domestic political landscape.