Hedgers Hang Up Their Hats: Bitcoin Options Traders Yolo Into Fed Week 🎩

Bitcoin options traders have unwound the downside hedges they built through June, leaving the market positioned for a quiet stretch that nonetheless contains a Federal Reserve rate decision on Wednesday. The put/call ratio on open interest has dropped to roughly 0.52 from about 0.76 in late June, according to Glassnode, indicating that calls are gaining share as traders step back from insurance rather than add to it. Large traders have been accumulating $70,000 strike calls and bull call spreads, a flow consistent with expectations of upside in the spot price.

The shift is most pronounced at the short end of the curve. The 25-delta skew, which measures the premium traders pay for downside protection relative to equivalent upside exposure, has fallen to around 4% at the one-week tenor, while three- and six-month contracts remain at 11% to 12%. That gap shows traders are still paying for insurance against turbulence later in the year but have largely stopped paying for it this week.

Implied volatility is compressed across the curve, sitting at 34.3% for one week against 40.8% for six months. The upward slope means the market is modeling the immediate future as calmer than the distant one, an unusual shape ahead of a scheduled macro event. The Fed's rate decision lands Wednesday, and markets have priced the odds of a July increase at roughly 15%, leaving the low near-term pricing defensible on the base case.

That thin positioning leaves limited cushion if the Fed's statement or projections surprise investors, and concentrated bets of this kind have historically amplified moves when they come. Bitcoin's $BTC was last seen around $64,672.36 in options pricing references. With hedges off and event risk on, the next 72 hours will test how much protection the market really needed.