Cease-Fire, Cheap Oil, Cheap Hopes: $BTC Climbs Back Over $65K While $ETH Steals the Show

Bitcoin is back above $65,000, trading at $65,250.07 and up roughly 1.2% over 24 hours, as a second consecutive day without U.S. or Iranian airstrikes revived risk appetite across global markets. The pause in military strikes, which began in late February and briefly unraveled a second-quarter ceasefire, sets the stage for another round of diplomacy, with Iran indicating it will continue halting airstrikes as long as the United States does the same. WTI crude futures gapped lower on Monday, trading around 5% down at $85, while Brent crude fell 4.7% to $92.19, easing inflation concerns that have weighed on rate-sensitive assets. Stock futures tied to the Nasdaq and S&P 500 traded about half a percent higher, and currency markets reflected the same risk-on tone, with the Australian dollar and euro gaining against the U.S. dollar.

Ether led the crypto complex, climbing more than 3% to nearly $1,950, with $SOL and $XRP posting 1% to 2% gains among other top-10 tokens. "Prices are also responding to macro developments," Vikram Subburaj, CEO of India-based FIU-registered Giottus exchange, said in an email, pointing to the oil pullback as a relief valve for inflation expectations. He added that ether's outperformance versus bitcoin signals some rotation into alternative cryptocurrencies, though $BTC dominance at 58.6% indicates this is not yet a broad-based altcoin trend. Looking ahead, Subburaj flagged the July 28-29 Federal Reserve meeting as the immediate risk, noting that markets are assigning a 36.3% probability to a 25-basis-point rate increase.

Other analysts focused on bitcoin's longer-term cycle, arguing the current drawdown may be nearing its floor. "The time between each Bitcoin Halving and the bottom of the following Bear Market has been approximately 900 days," Joao Wedson, founder and CEO of analytics firm Alphractal, said on X. "The current cycle is already at day 827. Based on this pattern, we can say that Bitcoin is already building its price bottom, with a potential final bottom forming sometime within the next two months." With Middle East tensions de-escalating for now and the Fed decision days away, traders are weighing geopolitical relief against the possibility of a hawkish policy surprise.