Peace, Pump & Petrol Pause: Bitcoin Clears $65K While ETH Sneaks in the Side Door 🕊️

Bitcoin rose back above $65,000 on Monday as the United States and Iran held fire for a second consecutive day, allowing risk assets to breathe and pulling oil prices sharply lower. BTC, the leading cryptocurrency by market value, traded around $65,250.07, up roughly 1.2% over 24 hours, according to CoinDesk data.

Ether outperformed bitcoin over the same window, climbing more than 3% to trade near $1,950, while solana (SOL) and XRP (XRP) posted 1% to 2% gains within the top 10 tokens by market capitalization. Vikram Subburaj, CEO of India-based FIU-registered Giottus exchange, attributed the move to macro developments rather than crypto-specific catalysts. "Prices are also responding to macro developments," Subburaj said in an email, noting that Brent crude's 4.7% fall to $92.19 has eased some inflation concerns but that the Federal Reserve's July 28–29 meeting remains the immediate risk. Markets are pricing in a 36.3% probability of a 25-basis-point rate increase at that gathering, Subburaj added.

Energy markets led the risk-on shift. Futures tied to WTI crude gapped lower on Monday, trading around 5% down at $85, while contracts linked to the Nasdaq and S&P 500 advanced roughly 0.5%. In currency markets, the Australian dollar and euro gained against the U.S. dollar, reinforcing the broader risk appetite.

The diplomatic backdrop shaped the session. The United States and Iran paused military strikes against each other for a second day, with Iran indicating it would continue halting airstrikes as long as the U.S. did the same, marking a tenuous start to what observers described as another potential peace process. The conflict began in late February and entered a fragile ceasefire during the second quarter before quickly unraveling.

Despite ether's outperformance, Subburaj pointed out that bitcoin's dominance stands at 58.6%, suggesting the rotation into alternative cryptocurrencies is not yet broad-based. Separately, Joao Wedson, founder and CEO of analytics firm Alphractal, leaned on historical patterns, noting on X that the gap between each Bitcoin Halving and the bottom of the subsequent bear market has averaged roughly 900 days, with the current cycle already at day 827, and that a potential final bottom could form within the next two months.