Bitcoin Bear Market Is 80% Done, Time-Based Torture Not Included 🐻⏳

The current Bitcoin bear market is approximately 80% complete after roughly 9.5 months, or 287 days, according to analysts at The DeFi Report, a cryptocurrency analysis and data platform. The assessment is based on past bear market cycles that averaged one year in duration. During this cycle, the market has weathered three major corrections exceeding 30%, and analysts identified two forms of investor capitulation: panic selling triggered by sharp declines and "time-based erosion" caused by prices remaining in a narrow range for extended periods.

On-chain data shows that investors who bought at peak levels have transferred 52% of their Bitcoin holdings to new, longer-term holders. The group that acquired Bitcoin between $92,000 and $108,000 has sold only 18% of their assets, but analysts project this figure could climb to 20% to 30% if the pattern continues. The DeFi Report places fair value for $BTC at $65,000 and notes the asset has traded below or around that level for 47 days so far in the current cycle, compared with 107 days during the 2022 bear market. The market capitalization decline has stayed at 5.8%, versus 19% in prior cycles, which analysts attribute to market maturation and support from spot ETFs. The firm still estimates a 65% probability that price will make a new low.

The report flags $63,000 as the primary lower support zone and the $70,000 to $73,000 range as the upper resistance and support reversal area that must be cleared to confirm a bull market and break the bear trend. Under a base case, $BTC is expected to form a time-sensitive bottom between $60,000 and $70,000 barring an additional systemic collapse in the sector, while a sharp shock could push price into a deep value zone of $50,000 to $55,000. Analysts also outlined macroeconomic risks, including rising oil prices tied to Middle East tensions and threats to the Strait of Hormuz that could lift inflation and keep the Federal Reserve hawkish, as well as speculation saturation in the AI sector driven by cheaper models, which could spark broader risk aversion.