Polymarket Gives CLARITY Act a 43% Wink as Ethics Fog Starts to Lift 👀

Polymarket traders pushed the implied odds that the CLARITY Act becomes law in 2026 to roughly 43% on Monday, up from 32% on Friday and well above the record low of 37% logged a day earlier, after a wave of unverified reports that President Trump accepted an ethics provision that had stalled the bill for months. No bill text has been released and Democrats say they have not seen it, according to a source familiar with the matter, while the White House and the offices of the senators involved had not commented. The market had traded as low as 37% on Sunday before rebounding on the reports.

The ethics fight has centered on how much senior officials, including the president, can profit from crypto while in office, a question sharpened by Trump's memecoins and his family's stake in World Liberty Financial, which financial disclosures last month showed earned him millions. Senate Democrats, led by Elizabeth Warren, have pushed for enforceable restrictions preventing senior government officials from financially benefiting from the digital asset industry they oversee, while Republicans have resisted language aimed specifically at the president's crypto interests, arguing it could undermine bipartisan support for the broader legislation. The provision was discussed at a July 16 meeting between Trump, Republican Senators Bernie Moreno and Cynthia Lummis, and White House crypto adviser Patrick Witt.

The CLARITY Act would create the first comprehensive federal framework for digital assets and split oversight between the Securities and Exchange Commission and the Commodity Futures Trading Commission. The House has passed the bill and the Senate Banking Committee has approved it, but it has yet to receive a Senate floor vote, and the Senate has until early August to act before lawmakers leave Washington for the August recess.

Crypto extended its rally on Monday as the reports circulated. Bitcoin ($BTC), ether ($ETH) and XRP all recorded gains, though traders largely attributed the move to strength in AI and semiconductor stocks rather than to the legislative news.