Polymarket Says CLARITY Act's 2026 Glow-Up Got Dem-oted by 26% Overnight 🏛️

The probability that the CLARITY Act will be approved in 2026 fell sharply on Polymarket, dropping 26 percentage points within a day to 39%, as Senate Democrats publicly rejected the latest version of the crypto market structure bill. The 24-hour trade volume on the contract stood at $2.31 million.

The slide followed the circulation of a revised draft, which Republican staff had previewed to industry figures including Coinbase CEO Brian Armstrong before its release. Senator Angela Alsobrooks, a Maryland Democrat, told reporters the Republican ethics proposal embedded in the bill was "wild and unserious and stone-cold crazy," according to financial reporter Eleanor Mueller. Alsobrooks added, "We must empower state-level attorneys general. … For many of us, that is an absolute. It's an absolute that we cannot completely rely on the DOJ given what we've seen."

Democrats' objections center on a provision granting the Department of Justice authority to enforce ethics requirements applicable to digital asset firms. Within hours of the revised text being shared, seven Senate Democrats publicly criticized the framework, citing unresolved concerns over state-level enforcement, conflicts of interest, and the bill's treatment of decentralized protocols.

Polymarket data shows the contract's implied odds have moved in tandem with each successive round of bipartisan talks, and the latest reading represents one of the steepest single-day declines since the market for 2026 CLARITY Act passage was created. The platform does not publish odds on individual Senate procedural steps, and the contract settles on whether the bill is signed into law before the end of 2026.

A spokesperson for the bill's sponsors did not immediately respond to requests for comment on whether further revisions are planned before the next markup. The legislation, formally titled the Digital Asset Market Clarity Act, remains pending in committee as of publication, and no vote has been scheduled.