Talos Walks Into Kalshi's Parlor, Finds a Prediction Market on a Hot Streak 📈

Institutional digital-asset trading platform Talos has integrated with Kalshi, allowing select clients to route trades in Kalshi's event contracts and crypto perpetuals through the same infrastructure they use for digital assets, eliminating the need for a separate connection. Talos will offer algorithmic order types including Iceberg, TWAP and POV, along with multi-leg execution for perp-to-perp and perp-to-spot spread trades. Institutional clients will also be able to execute block trades in Kalshi contracts through Talos's request-for-quote platform using participating over-the-counter liquidity providers.

Later this year, Talos plans to extend its dealer software to brokers and trading platforms, allowing them to offer Kalshi event contracts directly to customers where permitted. The company also plans to launch a unified prediction market data feed that standardizes events, trades, order books, open interest and implied probabilities across venues. Talos said the integration lowers operational hurdles for hedge funds, market makers and other professional trading firms already using Talos to add regulated prediction markets alongside existing crypto activity.

The integration comes as prediction markets attract record trading volume and growing institutional interest. According to a CoinGecko report, notional trading volume reached $113.8 billion in the second quarter, up 48.7% from the previous quarter, while June's $52.8 billion in notional volume marked a new monthly record. CoinGecko attributed the surge to a packed sports calendar, including the UEFA Champions League final, NBA Finals, Stanley Cup, FIFA World Cup and Wimbledon. On Polymarket, sports contracts accounted for 81% of June trading volume, up from 40% in January.

Kalshi expanded its lead among prediction market platforms, increasing its market share to 58.9% from 42.4% in the first quarter. Polymarket's share fell to 30.2% from 35.8%, while Rothera, the Robinhood and Susquehanna International Group-backed venture launched in May, climbed to fourth place in June with $2.1 billion in notional trading volume. Despite the growth, prediction markets continue to face legal and regulatory headwinds in the United States, where Kalshi is battling several state regulators over whether its sports event contracts constitute illegal gambling, a dispute many legal observers believe could ultimately reach the US Supreme Court. The industry is also facing scrutiny over potential insider trading, including a report that six Polymarket traders made about $1 million by correctly betting on US military strikes against Iran before the attacks became public, and a White House teleprompter operator placed on unpaid leave after allegedly making $X related trades ahead of public announcements.