Polymarket's crystal ball: 43% says Clarity Act clears the Senate — if the text ever shows up 🔮

The implied odds that the Clarity Act will become law in 2026 jumped to about 43% on Polymarket on Monday, up from 32% on Friday and a record low since the market began trading in January, after reports that President Trump agreed to an ethics provision that had stalled the bill for months. The White House and the offices of the senators involved had not commented, and a source familiar with the matter told CoinDesk that Democrats have not seen the bill text, with no text publicly released.

The ethics dispute, the final major obstacle in negotiations, centers on how much political figures and other officials can profit from crypto while in office — a question sharpened by Trump's memecoins and his family's stake in World Liberty Financial, which financial disclosures last month showed earned him millions. The provision was discussed at a July 16 meeting between Trump, Republican Senators Bernie Moreno and Cynthia Lummis, and White House crypto adviser Patrick Witt. The Senate has until early August to vote.

The Clarity Act would create the first comprehensive federal framework for digital assets and split oversight between the Securities and Exchange Commission and the Commodity Futures Trading Commission. Major tokens including bitcoin ($BTC), ether ($ETH) and XRP recorded gains following the Polymarket movement, though traders largely attributed the rally to strength in AI and semiconductor stocks.

Crypto extended its rally on Monday as the reports circulated, with $BTC and $ETH leading gains across major venues while the Polymarket contract repriced within hours. Bettors moved in quickly after the unverified reports, even as no official confirmation emerged from the executive branch or Senate offices named in the negotiations.

The next test for the bill's timeline will come in the coming weeks, as the August deadline approaches and lawmakers weigh whether to advance a measure whose language has yet to be shared with members of the opposing party. Until text is released, the Polymarket odds reflect reported movement rather than verified legislative progress.