Senate Math, Meet Crypto Math: CLARITY Act Hits a One-Yard Line With Ethics Still Hashed Out 🏈

President Donald Trump on Monday urged the U.S. Senate to pass the Digital Asset Market Clarity (CLARITY) Act "in honor of" Senator Lindsey Graham, who died over the weekend at age 71 after a brief illness. In a Truth Social post, Trump called the South Carolina lawmaker, who served in the Senate since 2003, "a big supporter" of the bill, and warned that "China, and many other countries, would like to take complete and total control of this major financial 'happening,' as well as A.I., where we are now leading, but where they are fighting hard. Don't let China win on either subject!!!" The appeal sets up a four-week sprint before the Senate's August recess, widely viewed as the bill's last realistic chance to pass this year. Trump is also expected to meet with senators at the White House on Thursday to negotiate the legislation's unresolved ethics provisions, according to people familiar with the plans and Politico.

The sticking point is a conflict-of-interest clause that would restrict the president, vice president, members of Congress and other senior federal officials from personally profiting from digital assets while in office. Democrats have demanded the language, citing Trump's financial disclosure showing more than $1 billion in 2025 crypto-related income, including over $500 million from World Liberty Financial, along with his memecoin ventures. Senator Cynthia Lummis, who is expected to attend the Thursday meeting along with Senator Bernie Moreno, told Fox Business a revised bill text would be introduced in the next few days and reach the Senate floor next week. Former Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) Commissioner Summer Mersinger, now CEO of the Blockchain Association, said on the Thinking Crypto podcast that the Senate Banking Committee and Senate Agriculture Committee are merging their versions into one proposal and that lawmakers are "negotiating some of the last-minute issues" before a vote. She placed the expected floor action "probably early next week" and described the bill as "at the one-yard line right now," with passage contingent on clearing the 60-vote cloture threshold.

Republicans' path to that threshold has narrowed. Graham's death and Senator Mitch McConnell's absence since mid-June reduce the GOP caucus to a 51-47 margin, raising pressure to court Democratic votes. Several Democrats who supported the bill in committee have said their backing would not extend to the floor without a deal on ethics, and additional disputes remain over developer liability protections for non-custodial software. A group of Democratic senators held a Tuesday press conference calling for opposition to the bill if it does not sever Trump's "corrupt" ties to the sector. The House passed the CLARITY Act 294-134 in July 2025, with dozens of Democrats joining, and the Senate Banking Committee later cleared it 15-9; the measure would shift much of the authority for enforcing digital asset oversight from the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) to the CFTC and would build on the GENIUS Act, the first major U.S. crypto law signed last July.

Prediction markets reflect the uncertainty. Traders on Polymarket put the odds of the CLARITY Act being signed into law this year near 39%, while a $3 million market on Kalshi priced a 36% chance of passage in 2026 and 62% before the end of 2027; Kalshi traders assigned a 79% probability that the Senate will vote on the bill before the August recess, up from 68.8% the prior day. Galaxy Digital head of research Alex Thorn has cut his firm's passage odds to 50%, citing a shrinking calendar and competition for floor time, while Solana Policy Institute president Kristin Smith pointed to "building momentum" and an emerging bill text. Separately, Wyoming crypto bank Custodia asked the Supreme Court to revive its fight with the Federal Reserve over its denied master account. White House crypto advisor Patrick Witt described this week as critical for the bill, and White House spokespeople did not immediately comment on the Thursday meeting plans.