JPMorgan's $21.2B Quarter Can't Buy Dimon's Conviction on S&P 500 or Bonds 📉

JPMorgan Chase chief executive Jamie Dimon said he would not buy the S&P 500 or long-dated US government bonds at current prices, even as the bank posted $21.2 billion in second-quarter net income — the largest quarterly profit in US banking history. Dimon laid out his warnings on The Master Investor Podcast with Wilfred Frost on July 20, 2026, telling listeners that "those risks are probably bigger than other people think."

Asked directly whether he would purchase long-dated government debt, Dimon answered flatly: "Personally, no. I would not be a buyer." He pointed to interest rates, noting that even if inflation cooled to 2%, the 10-year Treasury yield should sit near 4% to 4.5%, with short-term rates near 3.25% to 3.5% — levels markets have already largely reached. Dimon also tied bond risk to swelling US government deficits, recalling how inflation climbed from 3.5% to 11% through the 1970s as deficits built up. He cited Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh's recent call to scrutinize how inflation data gets calculated, noting that Warsh's own rate-hike odds turned sharply hawkish in June.

On equities, Dimon said he trades "name by name, not the market as a whole" and confirmed he has not bought any equities recently. When Frost asked if markets are pricing in a perfect outcome, Dimon said the scenario looks good but not perfect, describing little room for error at today's valuations. He expanded his caution beyond US assets, flagging the war in Ukraine, tensions with Iran, rising global military spending, and the US-China relationship as "tectonic plates that could shift and combine unexpectedly."

Dimon acknowledged that none of those threats may turn into an actual crisis, pointing to how markets absorbed an Iran-war oil shock earlier this year and noting that the global economy has grown more resilient and less energy-dependent. Resilience does not remove the chance of a sudden tipping point, however, and Dimon's cautious words stood in contrast to the record quarterly results JPMorgan reported just days earlier.