Hyperliquid Hands the Prediction Market Keys to the People (and 500K HYPE)

Hyperliquid will allow anyone to deploy prediction markets on its platform through an upcoming enhancement to its HIP-4 outcome trading framework, the exchange said, with the feature rolling out first on testnet and then on mainnet. The protocol introduced HIP-4 "outcome trading" in May, and the new step will move market creation away from validators, with Hyperliquid stating there will "ideally" be fewer than 10 validator-run markets a year.

To launch a market, deployers must stake 500,000 HYPE tokens, roughly $30 million at recent prices, a deposit that can be slashed if validators determine a market was poorly defined or settled incorrectly. In return, deployers can earn up to 50% of that market's trading fees, mirroring the economic model Hyperliquid uses for its permissionless perpetuals.

"The technology for outcome markets required sufficient battle testing in a validator-deployed setting before scaling to permissionless deployment," Hyperliquid said in its announcement. Deployers will rely on validator-approved prediction market templates designed to maintain quality and limit spam.

The move comes as prediction markets reported their largest summer on record. According to industry figures cited by Decrypt, the sector processed $50 billion in wagers in June, helped by the World Cup, and is on pace to exceed that in July, with $37 billion recorded through that point. Kalshi led the category with $33 billion, or 66% market share, while Hyperliquid posted $176 million in volume during the same period.

Hyperliquid has recently set new decentralized exchange volume records, drawn scrutiny from JPMorgan over its competitive stance toward Circle, and engaged in lobbying with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission and Commodity Futures Trading Commission. The price of HYPE continued to trade sideways near $60 as broader crypto majors declined alongside equities.