Eight Weeks of Red, Two Weeks of "Eh": BTC ETFs Buy Themselves a Participation Trophy 🏆

U.S. spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds recorded $197.4 million in net inflows for the week ended July 10, snapping an eight-week streak of weekly outflows that had totaled more than $8.26 billion since May 11, according to Farside Investors and SoSoValue data. BlackRock's iShares Bitcoin Trust ETF led the buying with $291.9 million in inflows over the week, while the Grayscale Bitcoin Trust ETF, the Fidelity Wise Origin Bitcoin Fund and the ARK 21 Shares Bitcoin ETF posted offsetting outflows. BlackRock's IBIT alone added $209.4 million on Monday and $86.8 million on Friday, a notable reversal given that IBIT was the single largest source of June's record $4.51 billion in monthly outflows.

The following week brought $75.7 million in net inflows, marking a second consecutive week of positive flows and bringing July's total ETF inflows to $200.2 million, per SoSoValue. Within that week, daily flows showed $181 million on Tuesday, $108 million on Wednesday and $79.2 million on Thursday, a three-day buying streak totaling roughly $368 million that pushed cumulative net inflows to $51.2 billion and assets under management to $77.7 billion. U.S. spot Ether ETFs also broke their own eight-week losing streak, pulling in $84.42 million for the week ended July 10, led by BlackRock and Fidelity's Ether funds, following $84 million the prior week. Bitcoin briefly climbed above $65,000 on Wednesday for the first time since late June, according to CoinGecko, before retracing to just under $63,000.

The rebound proved short-lived. On July 14, U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded $424.66 million in net outflows, the largest single-day withdrawal in July so far, reversing the prior week's gains and leaving ETF demand fragile after the record June outflow month. Bitcoin traded at $62,589 at the time, roughly 30% below its level at the start of the year, per CoinGecko. As of mid-July, U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs held total net assets of $74.79 billion and cumulative net inflows of $50.85 billion, with year-to-date net flows still negative at around $5.2 billion to $5.8 billion, depending on the data provider.

Analysts cited by the sources were divided on what the flows signal. Monochrome Asset Management founder and CEO Jeff Yew said one week of inflows doesn't define a trend but could indicate institutions positioning ahead of potential passage of the CLARITY Act in August. "While one week of inflows doesn't define a trend, it comes at a time when institutional confidence is growing around the potential passage of the CLARITY Act in the US in August next month," Yew told Cointelegraph. "This could be an early indication that institutions are beginning to position ahead of greater regulatory certainty, which is often what long-term capital allocators look for." XS.com head of business development Simon-Peter Massabni told Cointelegraph that Bitcoin needs to "decisively break above the $65,000–$65,500 range" to confirm a new uptrend, adding that the current recovery "still lacks real strength." On July 1, Citigroup cut its 12-month Bitcoin ETF inflow forecast from $10 billion to zero and lowered its 12-month Bitcoin price target from $112,000 to $82,000.

10x Research founder and CEO Markus Thielen pointed to August and September seasonality, ETF and stablecoin outflows, and a pattern of Bitcoin performing better in the first half of the month as headwinds, telling Cointelegraph that "without flows still pronounced and ETF flows yet to meaningfully pick up, even after Bitcoin's 9%+ jump, the headwinds remain in our view." Real Vision chief crypto analyst Jamie Coutts said Bitcoin could be entering the latter stages of the bear market. "I think we're getting through most of the bear market action. It's still not over, clearly. But you know, I think we're approaching at least the second half," Coutts said. CryptoQuant analyst Sunny Mom wrote that "a definitive, broad-based market bottom has yet to be confirmed," noting that nearly $10 billion has left U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs since Oct. 11, 2025, even as the number of new Bitcoin whales has continued to grow. The upcoming week features Tuesday's CPI print, the last major data point before Kevin Warsh's July 28-29 FOMC meeting, which sources flagged as a potential catalyst for the next leg of flows in either direction.