Traders drop $2.5B on a $70K–$72K Bitcoin bet timed right before the Fed speaks 🧮

Traders have purchased $2.5 billion in notional bitcoin call spreads on Deribit this week, targeting a price of $72,000 by July 31, according to data from the exchange. The positioning aligns with the Federal Reserve's July 29 interest rate decision, making the end-of-month settlement a closely watched catalyst. Bitcoin was last trading at $64,587.04.

The flow consists of 20,000 contracts of the $70,000 call expiring July 31 bought alongside the sale of 20,000 contracts of the $72,000 call of the same expiry, Deribit said. Each contract represents 1 bitcoin, bringing the total notional value of the 40,000 contracts to $2.5 billion. The structure is a bull call spread, a derivatives strategy that profits if the underlying asset rises to a specified level while capping gains beyond a higher strike, reducing the upfront cost.

"This week we have seen some large blocks in BTC topside call spreads," Jean-David Péquignot, chief commercial officer at Deribit, told CoinDesk. Options flow of this size and repetition typically reflects institutional positioning rather than retail activity, given the capital required and the precision of the strike selection, according to market participants.

The trades were placed as bitcoin recovered to $64,000 from under $58,000 earlier this month, suggesting some large traders view the Fed meeting as a potential trigger for a move higher. Fed funds futures currently imply a hold at the July meeting, with most trackers putting the probability of the central bank keeping its benchmark rate unchanged at 3.5%-3.75% in the 75%-80% range, with the remaining odds split between a cut and a hike.