Polymarket gives Clarity Act a 32% shot at surviving the Senate's ethics obstacle course 🏛️

Polymarket bettors have cut the odds of the Clarity Act becoming law this year to a record low of 32%, down roughly 30 percentage points since the prediction market launched on Jan. 11, 2026. The market, tracked by CoinDesk, peaked at 82% on Feb. 19 and has steadily declined since early May as the Senate's legislative calendar narrowed and bipartisan support proved elusive. The bill would draw a clearer jurisdictional line between the Securities and Exchange Commission and the Commodity Futures Trading Commission over digital assets, a framework industry executives argue would reduce regulatory uncertainty and bring crypto activity onshore.

The legislation's biggest remaining obstacle is the absence of a bipartisan ethics provision. Sen. Ruben Gallego (D-Ariz.), one of two Democrats who voted to advance the Clarity Act out of the Senate Banking Committee, has repeatedly said he will not support the bill on the Senate floor without such a provision, and other Democrats have raised similar concerns about conflicts of interest involving public officials and digital assets. Earlier this month, lawmakers were working on an updated legislative text expected to be released the following week, though it had yet to win Democratic backing.

President Donald Trump was expected to meet with Senate Republicans on Thursday to discuss the bill, but as of Friday there had been no public readout from the White House meeting and no bipartisan ethics language had emerged. The standoff has left one of the bill's largest unresolved questions hanging over its path to passage before the Dec. 31, 2026 deadline tracked on Polymarket.