Polymarket's AI Doom Meter Climbs as Buffett's Calm Wears Off and $BTC Catches a Chill 🧊

The odds of an AI bubble bursting in 2026 rose above 18% on Polymarket on Thursday, reversing a decline that had followed Warren Buffett's recent reassurances on artificial intelligence. The AI bubble burst odds had previously dropped from 30% to 14% after Buffett moved to ease AI fears, before climbing back into a 16–24% range amid renewed concerns, depending on the exact resolution criteria cited by the prediction market. The shift comes alongside sharp declines in key AI stocks, major revenue shortfalls tied to AI-linked businesses, and a broader market correction across risk assets.

US stock futures pointed lower in Thursday's session as fresh artificial intelligence jitters spread into Asian markets, according to The Wall Street Journal. Memory chip makers were among the hardest hit, with SK Hynix and Samsung Electronics sliding alongside declines in major AI-exposed equities. The selloff extended into digital assets, with $BTC also trading lower on the day as macro risk appetite cooled.

The renewed caution drew fresh warnings from established figures across global financial markets, including former Fidelity fund manager George Noble and IBM. Their comments added to a growing chorus of voices flagging stretched valuations and capital expenditure tied to AI infrastructure. Noble's remarks, delivered as part of the same wave of commentary, echoed concerns previously voiced by other institutional investors who have questioned whether current AI-related spending can justify the valuations assigned to leading chipmakers and hyperscalers.

Polymarket's prediction contract on an AI bubble bursting this year has become a closely watched proxy for sentiment among crypto-native traders, who have increasingly treated the market as a real-time gauge of macro tail risk. The contract's movement from 14% back above 18% coincided with Thursday's slide in $BTC and in US tech futures, underscoring how tightly digital assets have remained correlated with AI-driven equity themes throughout 2026.

IBM, which has itself invested heavily in AI infrastructure and enterprise deployments, joined the warnings even as it continues to position its Watson and consulting arms around generative AI services. The combination of insider caution from a major AI vendor and public skepticism from a former Fidelity portfolio manager marks an unusual alignment of voices across both the buy side and the technology supply chain, and it has tracked directly with the tick higher in Polymarket's bubble odds.