SpaceX Shares Hover Near IPO Price as Earnings and Unlock Double-Header Looms 🚀

SpaceX (SPCX) shares closed at $135.27 on Wednesday, sitting just above the company's $135 initial public offering price after touching an intraday low of $132.28. The decline marked SPCX's first close below its IPO level since its Nasdaq debut on June 12, arriving weeks before a series of dates investors say could reshape how the stock trades.

Roughly 95% of SpaceX's shares remain locked following the IPO, leaving only about 5% of the company freely tradable. That scarcity helped fuel an early valuation run past $2.6 trillion, but the thin float has also left the stock vulnerable to sharp moves. The company has begun scheduling additional releases, with 7% tranches set to unlock through August and September and a larger release tied to third-quarter results later this year. Elon Musk's 6.4 billion-share stake remains locked separately until June 2027.

Analysts expect SpaceX to deliver its first quarterly report during the first week of August. That same window triggers the first scheduled unlock, freeing roughly 20% of previously restricted shares for sale. An additional 10% tranche unlocks early if shares trade 30% above the IPO price, a threshold that requires five of the ten trading sessions before the report to close above $175.50. SPCX is currently trading well below that level, and its recent addition to the Nasdaq-100 index failed to reverse the slide.

The structure of the August release has drawn close attention from traders tracking technical setups. Some technical analysts have pointed to $158 as a near-term level to watch, though the stock remains far below that mark. Whether the upcoming report gives insiders reason to hold or sell into a newly available float remains uncertain, and that decision could carry as much weight as the earnings themselves.