Graham Ghost, Empty Seats: Senate's CLARITY Act Clock Ticks Down to 24% 🕰️

President Donald Trump on Monday urged the Senate to pass the Digital Asset Market Clarity (CLARITY) Act "in honor of" the late Senator Lindsey Graham, whom he described on Truth Social as "a big supporter" of the legislation. Graham, a South Carolina Republican who had served in the Senate since 2003, died on Saturday at age 71 after a brief illness. The Senate has roughly four weeks in session before a state work period that begins August 8, a window widely viewed as the bill's last realistic chance to pass this year.

Trump warned that "China, and many other countries, would like to take complete and total control of this major financial 'happening,' as well as A.I., where we are now leading, but where they are fighting hard. Don't let China win on either subject!!!" White House crypto advisor Patrick Witt described the week as critical for the bill.

The legislation would shift primary oversight of digital assets from the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) to the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC). The House passed the bill 294-134 in July 2025, and it later cleared the Senate Banking Committee 15-9. Passage on the Senate floor requires 60 votes, a threshold complicated by the absence of Senator Mitch McConnell, who has been hospitalized since mid-June, and the death of Graham, which has reduced the Republican majority to 51-47.

The main obstacle is an unresolved conflict-of-interest provision sought by Democrats, who want restrictions on personal crypto holdings and business ties for the president, vice president and members of Congress. Two committee Democrats who backed the bill have said their support will not extend to the floor without a deal. Trump's most recent financial disclosure showed more than $1 billion in crypto-related income for 2025, including over $500 million from his family's World Liberty Financial venture.

The president is expected to meet with senators Thursday afternoon to negotiate the ethics section, according to people familiar with the plans. Senator Cynthia Lummis said on X that she supported Trump's comments, adding that Graham "was passionate about ensuring that American leadership stayed at the forefront of everything - including digital assets."

Prediction market Polymarket priced the odds of the CLARITY Act being signed into law in 2026 near 24% as of July 13, down from above 70% earlier in the year. Galaxy Digital recently cut its passage estimate to 50%, while Solana Policy Institute President Kristin Smith cited building momentum and emerging bill text. Separately, Wyoming crypto bank Custodia asked the Supreme Court to revive its legal fight with the Federal Reserve over a denied master account.