Analysts Cut Coinbase Forecasts to Ribbons, Then Tell Everyone to Buy More 🤷‍♂️

William Blair slashed its revenue and earnings estimates for Coinbase (COIN) on Wednesday, yet kept an "outperform" rating and watched shares rise roughly 3–4% alongside Circle (CRCL). Analysts Andrew Jeffrey and Adib Choudhury at the Chicago-based bank wrote that "we think investors should stay involved in Coinbase," arguing the pain is already priced in. The firm cut its 2026 revenue forecast for Coinbase by 12% and 2027 revenue by 13%, while gutting adjusted EBITDA projections by 34% in both years. The analysts projected earnings will trough in the second half of 2026 before recovering in 2027, and that spot crypto volume will bottom alongside Bitcoin ($BTC).

William Blair expects Coinbase's total trading volume to fall roughly 44% in 2026 to $669 billion before rebounding more than 32% in 2027. The bank framed this cycle as structurally different from 2022, citing spot Bitcoin ETFs, expanded institutional flows and a regulatory environment that did not exist four years ago. Coinbase's Base layer-2 network was highlighted as a potential major earnings driver, with retail derivatives and prediction markets rounding out a revenue base extending beyond spot trading—retail derivatives alone crossed $200 million annualized in the first quarter.

Not every analyst shared the constructive view. Piper Sandler's Patrick Moley cut his price target on Coinbase to $155 from $170, maintaining a "neutral" rating. He flagged prediction markets and perpetual futures as the defining story of the second quarter, noting the World Cup drove massive growth in prediction market activity, and warned of "significant investor attention on the perpetual future threat" heading into the third quarter. Coinbase has fallen nearly 30% this year, tracking a roughly 26% decline in Bitcoin. Circle, which debuted on the NYSE in June 2025 at $31 per share, has dropped about 20% since January.

A similar directional read is emerging from technical analysis. John Bollinger, the veteran analyst who created Bollinger Bands—volatility envelopes plotted above and below a moving average—has been flagging a developing pattern on Bitcoin's daily chart since early July. On July 2, Bollinger posted on X identifying a "W" double-bottom forming, a reversal pattern defined by two swing lows separated by a rebound that turns bullish once price clears the resistance between the troughs. He called the setup "perfectly fractal," noting smaller versions of the shape nest inside the larger structure and that the pattern also appears on the weekly chart, while acknowledging previous bullish setups had been invalidated by selling pressure earlier in the cycle.