PPI Pulls a CPI: June Prints 0.7 Below the Guess, Fed Cut Bets Refill 📉

U.S. producer prices undershot forecasts in June, with the headline Producer Price Index falling 0.3% month over month against a consensus of 0.0% and rising 5.5% year over year versus an expected 6.2%, according to XTB data cited by Cryptonews. Core PPI rose 0.2% on the month against a 0.3% estimate and 4.7% on the year against 5.1% expected, leaving every major measure of wholesale inflation below consensus.

The softer print followed Tuesday's cooler-than-expected CPI report, in which headline inflation fell 0.4% month over month against expectations for a 0.1% decline, cooling to 3.5% year over year from 4.2% in May. Core CPI was flat on the month and rose 2.6% annually. Together, the two releases gave traders fresh ammunition to price in a less restrictive path from the Federal Reserve after May's PPI reaccelerated to 6.0% year over year.

June's move down to 5.5% year over year unwound a portion of those reacceleration concerns, and market participants began reassessing how restrictive Fed policy may need to remain through the back half of the year. Cryptonews analysis noted that markets are now likely to lean further into pricing a less aggressive rate path following the combined CPI and PPI surprises.

The report drew immediate reaction across crypto markets, where $BTC and $ETH trade in close correlation with macro liquidity expectations. Coin Bureau posted the full XTB breakdown on X, flagging that both headline and core PPI landed below forecasts and signaling easing wholesale inflation pressure. With two consecutive upside-to-data surprises on the consumer and producer sides, traders moved to reprice Fed funds futures, though officials have not publicly committed to a timeline for cuts.