SPR Leak: America's Crude Cushion Goes Flat as Brent Tips $85 🛢️

Brent crude pushed above $85 a barrel and West Texas Intermediate cleared $80 on Wednesday, extending a three-session climb as US and Iranian forces continue to trade strikes near the Strait of Hormuz. The price action has refocused attention on how little spare supply capacity remains to absorb the next shock to global energy markets.

June Goh, a senior oil market analyst at Sparta Commodities, said the reserve buffer that absorbed months of supply disruptions is nearly exhausted. "Crude oil is fast losing its strategic petroleum reserve buffer and a violent repricing up cannot be discounted until the market sees toned-down rhetoric from both parties," Goh told Al Jazeera, warning that a sharp price move could follow if Washington and Tehran keep escalating. The caution echoes an earlier G7 discussion, when governments weighed releasing up to 400 million barrels during a previous spike, and a recent alert from an ExxonMobil executive that global inventories were tightening fast.

President Donald Trump told Fox News that US strikes will intensify next week, targeting Iranian power plants and bridges unless Tehran returns to the negotiating table. Iran has not ruled out imposing its own tolls on Hormuz shipping in response, while Trump reversed course on a separate plan and dropped a proposed 20% fee on cargo moving through the strait, saying Gulf states will instead offer trade and investment deals. The US reimposed its naval blockade on Iranian ports the same day, and MarineTraffic recorded 57 transits through Hormuz from Friday through Sunday, a drop of more than 50% from the previous week and well below the roughly 130 transits a day handled before the war began in February.

Bart Melek, global head of commodity strategy at TD Securities, said the rally could run further. "I suspect that a move to $100 is quite possible, should it become apparent that physical shortage risks are real and increasingly likely," Melek said. The US Department of Energy pushed back on the shortage narrative, stating Monday that 8.5 million barrels crossed the strait the day before with military assistance, a pace it said matches typical flows. Higher crude could complicate the inflation outlook, with analysts having expected price relief to continue through the back half of the year.