Bitcoin Hugs the $58K Power-Law Mattress, Refuses to Get Up ⏰

Bitcoin is drifting toward the lower support line of a long-tracked power-law model near $58,000, with Fidelity director of global macro Jurrien Timmer flagging the zone as a historical accumulation area but stopping short of calling a bottom. Spot $BTC was trading around $62,700 as of the latest data, closing in on the support curve that has caught every major bottom since 2015.

Timmer's chart plots bitcoin's entire price history on a logarithmic scale bounded by three curves: an upper resistance line, a middle trendline and a lower support line. The lower support line currently sits near $58,000, and the gap between price and trendline has widened to negative 56%, a depth the chart labels the accumulation zone and one that previously lined up with the 2018 and 2022 lows.

A separate measure has moved in tandem. The 52-week reading on the bitcoin-to-gold ratio has dropped to roughly negative 100%, a stretch also last seen at those prior cycle bottoms. Timmer has previously noted that the speculative premium that pushed bitcoin past $120,000 last year is largely gone and that global money supply growth is slowing.

Timmer said he sees no immediate catalyst for a reversal until liquidity returns, and indicated that bitcoin could sit near the support line for months rather than snap back. He pointed to a rotation of speculative capital that began in bitcoin, moved into gold and has since shifted into semiconductor stocks, which he described as where the chase is now.