Warsh Walks Into Congress With a Hot CPI, a Hotter PPI, and Five Banks on Speed Dial 📊

Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh steps before Congress for the first time as chair this week, delivering testimony on Tuesday, July 14 to the House Financial Services Committee and on Wednesday to the Senate Banking Committee. His remarks come hours after the June Consumer Price Index release on Tuesday and one day after the Producer Price Index reading, giving lawmakers two inflation prints to weigh against his stance on rates. The testimony follows Warsh's first FOMC meeting in June, where officials signaled openness to a rate hike if inflation stays elevated.

A heavy slate of bank earnings lands in the same window, providing an early read on loan demand, credit quality, net interest margins, and loan loss provisions. JPMorgan, Bank of America, Wells Fargo, Goldman Sachs, and Citigroup all report on Tuesday. The disclosures arrive after banks cleared the Federal Reserve's annual stress test with capital levels intact, leaving investors to compare those results against the macro backdrop Warsh is describing on Capitol Hill.

Midweek earnings extend beyond banks. Morgan Stanley, Johnson & Johnson, ASML, and United Airlines report Wednesday, with Morgan Stanley offering an investment banking perspective and ASML's order book serving as a gauge of AI-driven chip demand. Taiwan Semiconductor, Netflix, UnitedHealth, and GE Aerospace follow on Thursday, a lineup that carries weight after a stretch in which semiconductor stocks outpaced Big Tech and as Netflix faces a more crowded streaming field.

The macro calendar caps the week with June retail sales data on Thursday, delivering a final consumer health check as markets weigh inflation risk against growth concerns amid sector rotation toward defensive names. Economists have trimmed recession odds in recent updates while raising inflation forecasts, a combination that leaves the Federal Reserve limited room to ease policy this year. Warsh inherited the role following his predecessor's final FOMC meeting, which concluded with a sticky inflation picture and a volatile energy market.