Schiff Picks Bonds as Wrecking Ball: "Bitcoin Just Tags Along When Tech Drops" 📉

Peter Schiff says the next major market crash will begin in the bond market rather than in Bitcoin, arguing that rising U.S. Treasury yields pose the real threat to global markets. On his latest podcast, the longtime gold proponent warned that a breakdown in Treasuries could ripple through stocks, housing, and cryptocurrencies, pushing investors toward gold as risk assets unwind together.

Schiff's warning centers on a bond market he says has already begun to break. The 10-year Treasury yield sits near 4.5%, while the 30-year has climbed toward 5%, according to Treasury figures. He expects both to head sharply higher, lifting borrowing costs across the economy. Schiff argues this trajectory would pressure stocks, deepen a housing affordability problem, and slow growth, with the average 30-year mortgage already at 6.49% according to Freddie Mac's weekly survey, a level keeping many buyers away. A deeper housing slump would force the Federal Reserve to step in, bringing more money printing and higher inflation, and in his view favoring precious metals. Gold now trades above $4,100 an ounce, having recovered after slipping below $4,000 in June.

Bitcoin has held up better than many of Schiff's critics expected. The token trades near $64,200, with a market cap around $1.29 trillion, even as it sits roughly 49% below its record of $126,080 from October 2025. That drawdown, Schiff argues, already shows Bitcoin does not behave like a safe haven, and he expects it to fall further when stocks drop rather than hold firm like gold. "Although I believe that when tech stocks go down, Bitcoin will be correlated. It just doesn't go up when tech stocks go up. But when tech stocks go down, it's gonna go down a lot more," he said on the podcast.

He also doubts Wall Street's public optimism. Major banks still hold bullish Bitcoin targets, yet Schiff points to the weak performance of Strategy's preferred shares as evidence investors privately question those calls. The strain runs deeper at MicroStrategy itself, the largest corporate holder with more than 840,000 BTC, which has started selling Bitcoin to fund dividends on those securities. Schiff has long warned the model would buckle, including a controversial call for a steeper decline to $20,000. "I do believe that the precious metals market is setting up for a major move up and the stock market is setting up for a major move down," he stated. Whether the bond market cracks the way he predicts remains far from certain, as many analysts still expect yields to ease if inflation cools.