Oil's Up, Approval's Down, and Trump's Still Posting the Opposite Numbers ⛽

Brent crude climbed nearly 4% to $78.67 a barrel by Sunday evening and extended those gains above $79 after the United States launched a fourth round of strikes on Iran in a single week, with Tehran retaliating against US military sites in Jordan, Kuwait, Bahrain, and Oman. Iran then declared the Strait of Hormuz closed, a claim US Central Command rejected, stating vessels could transit freely. The strait carries roughly 20% of global oil supply, and traffic had only recently rebounded under a fragile June 17 ceasefire agreement between Washington and Tehran that was called off on July 8, sending crude back upward.

Hours after the strikes pushed oil higher, President Donald Trump wrote on Truth Social: "59% Approval Rating. Prices coming down along with the lowering of oil and gas. Thank you! President DJT." Independent polling averages from The Economist and FiftyPlusOne place Trump's approval rating closer to 37–40%, with disapproval near 59%, almost the inverse of the figure in his post.

Gas prices have not moved in the direction Trump described. AAA data shows the national average near $3.87 a gallon, up roughly 30% since the war began in February, though down from a $4.56 peak on Memorial Day. Analysts have attributed the earlier decline to de-escalation messaging rather than a sustained downward trend.

With strikes resuming and Iran and the United States contesting control of Hormuz, the "lowering" Trump cited now appears short-lived, and market reaction will hinge on whether the conflict continues to escalate through the week.