Bitcoin's Halving Cycles Still Deliver New Highs — Just Ask Your Grandpa's 75x 🧓

Bitcoin's four-year halving cycles continue to mint new all-time highs, but each successive peak has delivered a shrinking multiple, undermining some of the most bullish forecasts for the next rally in 2029. Crypto analysts and institutions, including veteran trader Peter Brandt, have set price targets ranging from $300,000 to $500,000 for the next cycle high, with Bernstein analysts Gautam Chhugani and Mahika Sapra citing booming spot ETF demand and projecting $500,000 by 2029. BTC traded at $64,225.15 at the time of writing.

The cycles are anchored to bitcoin's mining reward halving, a programmed 50% reduction in new bitcoin issued per block roughly every four years. The first halving took place in 2012 and the fifth is scheduled for April 2028. Historically, prices have bottomed roughly 18 months before each halving and peaked 16 to 18 months afterward, setting up the next year-long bear market. Under that framework, the peak of the next cycle would land in 2029.

The data, however, shows a clear deceleration in peak-to-peak multiples. The 2013 peak was $266, the 2017 high reached nearly ~$20,000 — a 75x move from the prior high — the 2021 cycle topped out near $69,000, roughly 3.5x above the previous peak, and the 2025 high of $126,000 represented just 1.8x the 2021 peak. Each successive bull market peak has been lower in multiple terms than the last.

As bitcoin grows in size and liquidity through deepening institutional participation, ETFs, and more sophisticated derivatives, the capital required to push the asset meaningfully higher continues to expand. The pattern suggests bull runs are becoming steadier and more measured, with the era of parabolic moonshot rallies fading into the rearview mirror.

The fifth halving, scheduled for April 2028, will test whether the trend of compressing cycle multiples holds or whether institutional demand can stretch the math in ways previous cycles never required.