SpaceX Lands on Nasdaq-100 With a $1.9T Valuation, 35% Dip, and an $800 Price Target 🚀

SpaceX (SPCX) joined the Nasdaq-100 before U.S. markets opened Tuesday, June 26, less than a month after its June 12 direct listing at a $135 offer price. The aerospace and satellite company, which held 18,712 bitcoin ($BTC) as of March 31, raised $75 billion in one of the year's largest IPOs. Despite the index inclusion, SPCX has shed as much as 35% from its post-IPO peak of $225.64, closing at $160.42 on Monday, down 0.98% on the session and roughly 29% below the high.

Index-tracking funds and ETFs managing roughly $800 billion in collective assets were required to buy SPCX at the closing price to match the benchmark. Nasdaq confirmed the addition on June 26, with JPMorgan estimating SpaceX would carry about a 1.3% weight, ranking near 21st in the index behind Nvidia, Walmart, Intel and Tesla. "Make no mistake, this is still very high volatility," Mike Khouw, chief strategist at OpenInterest.PRO, told CNBC. JJ Kinahan, senior vice president at Cboe, urged caution, asking: "Are you comfortable with a $20 expected move over the next 11 days?" Susquehanna analyst Charles Minervino called the lockup schedule a near-term overhang, noting that insider restrictions lift in tranches between 70 and 135 days after the June 12 IPO, while shares held by Elon Musk and other large backers stay locked for 366 days.

Following the expiration of the 25-day post-IPO quiet period, Wall Street brokerages launched overwhelmingly bullish coverage on July 7. Goldman Sachs analyst Eric Sheridan set a $205 price target, while Morgan Stanley's Adam Jonas assigned a $300 target. They were joined by Bank of America, Citigroup, Deutsche Bank, JPMorgan, Macquarie, RBC Capital Markets, UBS and Wells Fargo, all with buy or equivalent recommendations. Raymond James analyst Brian Gesuale initiated coverage with a Strong Buy rating and an $800 price target, writing: "We see the company as one of the defining industrial infrastructure companies of the 21st century."

SpaceX posted about $18.7 billion in revenue in 2025, up roughly 33% year over year, with Starlink generating more than $11 billion, about 61% of total revenue. The company reported a $4.9 billion net loss in 2025 and an additional $4.3 billion loss in the first quarter of 2026, as heavy spending on its xAI artificial intelligence unit and Starship development continued to weigh on cash flow. Ark Invest purchased 153,084 SpaceX shares across three of its exchange-traded funds. Reports also indicated SpaceX is aiming to deploy up to 100,000 third-generation Starlink satellites pending FCC approval.

MoffettNathanson took a neutral stance on the stock, while CFRA recommended that investors sell, even as the broader analyst consensus leaned bullish. SPCX was recently trading at $150.93, above its $135 IPO price but below the $150 area where shares have closed for two consecutive sessions following the Nasdaq-100 inclusion.