XRP's Spot Buyers Step Up While Futures Traders Quietly Head for the Exits 🏃

XRP is holding near $1.14 as of writing, but the structure beneath that price tells two very different stories depending on which market you look at. Open interest across the market has dropped from above $1 billion to around $823.8 million, and Binance perpetual open interest has fallen to roughly 397 million XRP, its lowest level in over three months. On Binance specifically, open interest slipped from about $255 million to $203 million, while the perpetual cumulative volume delta (CVD) on the exchange collapsed from around -$48 million to -$783 million, pointing to heavy sell-side pressure in perpetual contracts. CryptoQuant analyst Arab Chain characterized the move as "a slowdown in activity within the derivatives market," adding that "a decline in open interest is not necessarily a definitive bearish signal" but does "point to reduced trader participation." Chain also noted that falling open interest alongside soft prices "often signals weaker risk appetite and an outflow of liquidity from futures," and that such phases "represent a period of repositioning as investors await a clearer market direction."

The spot market, however, is moving in the opposite direction. The XRP Binance Scarcity Index has climbed to 0.77, its highest reading in over two years, and Binance XRP reserves have fallen roughly 650 million coins, or about 20%, since November 2024, dropping from 2.8 billion in May to around 2.6 billion more recently. Aggregate estimated spot CVD across centralized exchanges improved from about -$42 million to +$406 million over the past two months, a net rise of roughly $448 million, with spot taker buy dominance clearly visible earlier in the period before moving into a more neutral zone. XRP futures taker CVD has stayed weak or neutral through that same stretch, meaning futures traders have not matched the aggression shown by spot buyers.

Technical charts referenced by analysts show a hidden bearish divergence on the daily timeframe, with price printing lower highs while the RSI prints higher highs, and traders citing $1.15 as a level to watch on the upside with $1.00 to $1.04 flagged as an area where short positions have faced pressure. The combination of rising spot scarcity, falling exchange reserves and improving spot CVD against shrinking derivatives positioning leaves $XRP in a spot-led setup, with leverage-driven volatility likely lower in the near term and price action more dependent on spot flows than on futures positioning.