SpaceX Hits Nasdaq-100, Drops 35% Anyway — Wall Street Still Hands Out Buy Ratings 🚀

SpaceX (SPCX) shares fell as much as 35% from their post-IPO peak of $225.64, closing at $148 on July 8 — below the $150 opening price for a second straight session — even as the stock began trading in the Nasdaq-100 before U.S. markets opened on Tuesday. The decline erased nearly all of the gains from SpaceX's June 12 listing, when shares priced at $135 in a $75 billion IPO that valued the company at nearly $2 trillion.

Nasdaq confirmed on June 26 that SPCX would join the index, less than a month after its debut. Index-tracking mutual funds and ETFs holding a combined $800 billion in assets under management were required to buy SpaceX shares at the prior session's closing price to match the benchmark. JPMorgan estimated SpaceX would carry about a 1.3% weight, ranking near 21st behind Nvidia, Walmart, Intel, and Tesla. Mike Khouw, chief strategist at OpenInterest.PRO, told CNBC that smaller weights limit the buying impact, adding, "Make no mistake, this is still very high volatility." JJ Kinahan, senior vice president at Cboe, separately urged caution, asking, "Are you comfortable with a $20 expected move over the next 11 days?"

Wall Street launched overwhelmingly bullish coverage on Tuesday after the expiration of the 25-day post-IPO quiet period. Goldman Sachs analyst Eric Sheridan set a $205 price target, while Morgan Stanley's Adam Jonas assigned $300. Bank of America, Citigroup, Deutsche Bank, JPMorgan, Macquarie, RBC Capital Markets, UBS, and Wells Fargo also initiated with buy or equivalent ratings. Raymond James analyst Brian Gesuale issued the most optimistic call, a Strong Buy with an $800 target, writing, "We see the company as one of the defining industrial infrastructure companies of the 21st century." MoffettNathanson took a neutral stance and CFRA recommended selling.

The pullback leaves SpaceX with a market capitalization near $1.9 trillion. The company reported about $18.7 billion in 2025 revenue, up roughly 33% year over year, putting its valuation at approximately 100 times sales. Starlink generated more than $11 billion of that total, about 61% of revenue. SpaceX posted a $4.9 billion net loss in 2025 and an additional $4.3 billion loss in the first quarter of 2026, with spending on the xAI artificial intelligence unit and Starship development continuing to weigh on cash flow. As of March 31, the company held 18,712 bitcoin ($BTC), trading at $63,029.61.

Insider lockup expiries add another near-term variable, with restrictions lifting in tranches between 70 and 135 days after the June 12 IPO. Susquehanna analyst Charles Minervino called the schedule a near-term overhang, since fresh supply may arrive just as index demand builds. Shares held by Elon Musk and other large backers remain locked for 366 days.