SpaceX Analysts Can't Agree on Anything: Targets Span From a Tesla to a Used Lambo 🐑

Wall Street analysts covering SpaceX published price targets ranging from $131 to $800, a roughly $669 spread, after the quiet period lifted on the 23 banks underwriting the company's initial public offering. Nineteen analysts issued new ratings in the same window, with the median target landing near $250, about 56% above Monday's closing price. SpaceX began trading under the ticker $SPCX on Tuesday, July 7, the same day it joined the Nasdaq-100 index. Despite the bullish median, $SPCX has trended downward since its inclusion.

Raymond James analyst Brian Gesuale set the Street-high target at $800, comparing SpaceX to railroads and the internet as foundational infrastructure. Citi's John Godyn initiated coverage with a buy rating and a $200 price target, describing it as a step toward a longer-term $900 goal tied to Starship. Deutsche Bank's Edison Yu issued a buy-equivalent rating at $255, while J.P. Morgan's Doug Anmuth set his at $225. Morgan Stanley's Adam Jonas established a $300 base case, with a $600 bull case and a $75 bear case. Fourteen of the 19 targets clustered between $200 and $250. The targets followed heavy institutional demand, including a reported $5 billion order from BlackRock ahead of the company's $2 trillion debut last month.

At the low end, MoffettNathanson analyst Julie Zhu set the Street-low target at $131 with a neutral rating, implying 18% downside. The firm called SpaceX's $30 trillion addressable market estimate "absurd" and questioned Elon Musk's plan to deploy 100 gigawatts of orbital compute by 2029, writing: "There is simply no credible financial model that can support what is at the time of this writing a roughly $2 trillion valuation. Our own certainly does not." Zhu's team stopped short of issuing a sell rating and argued investors are pricing SpaceX as an option on businesses that don't exist yet. MoffettNathanson flagged regulatory scrutiny of SpaceX's launch dominance as the larger long-term risk, though it noted that risk remains years away. Starship's next test flight this month is expected to factor into which set of forecasts proves closer to reality.