Coinbase Premium Sits in the Negative for a Record 50 Days Straight 📉

Bitcoin's institutional demand in the United States has shown an unusually long stretch of weakness, with the Coinbase Bitcoin Premium Index logging its longest-ever run of 50 consecutive days in negative territory, according to Coinglass data. A persistent negative premium typically signals that institutions have been net sellers or that U.S. institutional appetite has been muted, conditions that often coincide with short-term caution rather than a definitive longer-term bearish signal.

On-chain profitability metrics have also begun to soften. On June 2, Bitcoin's 30-day Net Unrealized Profit/Loss (NUPL) exponential moving average, sitting at 0.155, crossed below the 100-day EMA at 0.215. Both averages remain above zero, meaning the average holder is still in profit, but the bearish crossover points to declining investor profitability and fading momentum. Historically, Bitcoin's 100-day NUPL EMA has dropped below zero at major bear market bottoms in 2011, 2015, 2018, and 2022. In this cycle, the indicator has stayed positive, leaving open the question of whether $BTC can form its first significant bottom without the metric going negative or whether another leg down is required.

At press time, $BTC was trading at $63,148.36, up nearly 7% over the previous week but still short of the $80,000 level reached in early May. Technical indicators offered mixed signals: the MACD showed strength with green histograms suggesting bullish momentum, while the RSI displayed a bearish reading. Tight Bollinger Bands confirmed that the current price squeeze is likely to persist in the near term.

On the flows side, spot Bitcoin ETFs have returned to net inflows, ending an eight-week streak of outflows. One analyst has highlighted a liquidity zone between $48,000 and $50,000 as a likely target for market makers seeking to trigger stop-losses and liquidation orders before any potential bottom forms, though the same analyst acknowledged that strong demand or other catalysts could prevent $BTC from reaching that range. Long-term holders, meanwhile, have remained resilient through three consecutive quarters of losses, a point underscored by former NASA researcher Benjamin Cowen.