Shorts Got Steamrolled, Whales Got the Menu: $BTC's $63K Encore Is Now Playing in a Rehearsal Hall 🎭

Bitcoin climbed above $63,000 during thin U.S. holiday trading over the July 4 weekend, fully reversing the losses that closed out June and reaching its highest level in more than two weeks. $BTC traded around $63,207 on Monday, up 1.4% over 24 hours and as much as 5.5% over seven days, after touching a high of $64,500 on Monday, according to CoinDesk data. The rally traced back to Thursday's U.S. Nonfarm Payrolls report, which showed the economy added just 57,000 jobs in June against expectations near 113,000, easing rate-hike fears. Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh's earlier comments that inflation risks have come down, lower Treasury yields and a weaker dollar reduced the opportunity cost of holding the asset. Spot Bitcoin ETFs added to the move, snapping a 10-day streak of outflows with a net $223.5 million inflow on July 2, followed by another $265 million day on Monday, per Farside Investors, though the funds are still working through June's record $4.5 billion in redemptions. Over $450 million in short positions were liquidated across the derivatives market as price broke through $62,000, and over $500 million in leveraged crypto futures bets were liquidated in the 24 hours through Tuesday, with shorts bearing the brunt for a sixth straight day.

$Ether led major tokens on the week, rising 12.4% to around $1,777 and at one point hitting $1,830 on Monday, while $ETH added 3.2% on the Saturday session to about $1,793. Dogecoin gained around 5.5% over seven days, $SOL held near $80.77 with an 11.2% weekly rise and added nearly 19% on the week in one tally, and $BNB rose about 5.5%. $XRP traded at $1.14, up 9.4% over seven days and 5.3% over 24 hours to $1.18 in one session, a move that lifted it past the $USDC stablecoin to fifth place by market value at roughly $73 billion. Lighter's $LIT surged more than 50% on the week to around $2.50 after a Robinhood integration, with the token's decentralized derivatives exchange accumulating $40 billion in 30-day trading volume, while CoinMarketCap's Altcoin Season indicator climbed to 52/100, its highest in three months. $MORPHO and $ADA each lost around 4% over 24 hours, illustrating a fragmented altcoin market in which $ETHFI and $LIT rose more than 30% on the week while $FET, $KASPA and $WLD posted losses.

Market makers and analysts have framed the move as a relief rally rather than a structural shift. Wintermute wrote that "this looks like a textbook relief rally" and that "until that broader capital flow picture actually turns, this reads as relief rather than something structural," pointing to easing macroeconomic conditions, a more dovish Fed tone and improving $ETH headlines as the catalysts, while cautioning that one inflow session does not make a trend and that a sustained streak of ETF inflows would be needed to confirm a reversal. Bernstein analysts maintained their year-end $BTC target of $150,000, writing that "any crypto correction is painful, but this one has been rather comfortable," adding that "crypto feels like it's growing up. We remain optimistic on Bitcoin long-term," while acknowledging the target "appears ambitious in context of the market correction." Bernstein also noted that Strategy, which sold $216 million in $BTC last week to fund dividends and now holds more than $2.55 billion in USD reserves covering roughly 17 months of dividend and interest expenses, is unlikely to become a forced seller and "continues to be a net buyer in the market."

Derivatives data has raised questions about the rally's durability. Open interest in $BTC futures slipped to 740K $BTC from a July 3 high of 776K $BTC, and ether, $SOL and $XRP open interest was largely unchanged, a sign that derivative traders are not joining the price rise alongside persistent weakness in spot demand and ETF flows alongside a negative Coinbase premium. Total crypto market capitalization grew 8.4% from July 1 to about $2.16 trillion, even as the 21-month low of $57,950 reached on July 1 marked $BTC's worst first half since 2018 and 2022. The recovery began at a 21-month low on July 1 with whales absorbing roughly $16.7 billion of $BTC over two weeks, while Strategy affiliates including $MSTR and $STRC rebounded 21% on the week, with $STRC ending the week at $87.87 after touching lows near $70. Bitcoin miner TeraWulf separately struck a 20-year lease with Anthropic that the company says could bring in roughly $19 billion in revenue, sending $WULF shares up about 14% on the day to $24.05, while Bernstein cited roughly 50% odds on Polymarket that the Clarity Act passes by year-end as a potential catalyst for "more market liquidity and institutional adoption for both crypto-native assets and blockchain versions of real-world assets."