Hormuz Happens: Iran Missiles Send Oil Bouncing While Traders Pretend They Didn't Just Check Their港口 Watchlists 🛢️

Oil futures rebounded on Tuesday after Iran reportedly fired at least two missiles at commercial vessels in the Strait of Hormuz, knocking crude off its brief return toward pre-war pricing. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude rose 1.50% to $69.575, while Brent crude gained 1.64% to $73.169, according to TradingEconomics data. The wider energy complex tracked higher, with gasoline up 0.17%, heating oil adding 0.62% and natural gas climbing 1.48%. Both benchmarks remain well below their wartime peaks, with Brent down more than 22% and WTI off nearly 24% over the past month.

Axios, citing two US officials, reported the Iranian launches came after a one-week agreement between Washington and Tehran to halt attacks in the waterway expired. The United Kingdom Maritime Trade Operations (UKMTO) centre separately reported an incident 8 nautical miles east of Limah, Oman, stating a southbound tanker was struck by an unknown projectile and caught fire. A US official told Axios a second commercial vessel was hit by an Iranian missile. Both ships suffered significant damage, though no casualties were reported.

The Strait handles roughly 20% of global oil traffic, amplifying the market sensitivity to any disruption there. The reported strikes land on a memorandum of understanding signed roughly three weeks ago by the US and Iranian governments, a deal designed to end a nearly four-month war between the two sides. A subsequent round of indirect talks held in Doha last week concluded without meaningful progress, leaving the truce's future uncertain as Washington weighs its response.

The renewed tension has coincided with domestic political strain for President Donald Trump. A recent poll found 58% of voters judged the war not worth the cost, while his approval rating held at 36%. Market participants are now watching for any further escalation or de-escalation signals that could determine whether crude extends its bounce or reverts toward pre-war support levels.